← Serie B 2025-26 · Tue, Oct 28, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Andrea Calzavara, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Pescara win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Avellino win | 34% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 31% | 2.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Pescara +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Avellino +0 | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 20 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia |