← Serie B 2025-26 · Tue, Oct 28, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luca Sacchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Palermo win | 39% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.82 |
| AC Monza win | 29% | 3.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza −0.25 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Palermo −0.25 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.60 |
| Over | 41% | 2.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Keita Baldé · AC Monza |
| 39' | ⚽ | Dany Mota · AC Monza |
| 50' | ⚽ | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 74' | 🟨 | Matteo Brunori · Palermo |
| 74' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 82' | 🟨 | Samuele Birindelli · AC Monza |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Ravanelli · AC Monza |
| 90' | ⚽ | Paulo Azzi · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Palermo | AC Monza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Renzo Barbera |
| coach days | 119.00 | 119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1526.52 | 1507.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.45 | 20.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.95 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.92 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| league points | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 3.08 | 3.27 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | -0.09 |
| solidity v1 | — | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | — | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | — | 0.91 |