← Serie B 2025-26 · Tue, Oct 28, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Davide Di Marco, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 47% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.05 |
| Carrarese win | 23% | 4.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carrarese −0.5 | 52% | 1.83 |
| Cesena −0.5 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Fabio Ruggeri · Carrarese |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Cristian Shpendi · Cesena |
| 53' | ⚽ | Tommaso Berti · Cesena |
| 68' | 🟨 | Emanuele Adamo · Cesena |
| 74' | ⚽ | Mattia Finotto · Carrarese |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cesena | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Dino Manuzzi |
| coach days | 88.00 | 666.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1503.73 | 1487.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.46 | 28.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| league points | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 3.27 | 3.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.52 | 26.98 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |