← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 26, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Luca Massimi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bari win | 45% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
| Mantova win | 25% | 3.84 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bari −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Mantova −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.91 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Flavio Paoletti · Mantova |
| 22' | 🟨 | Raffaele Pucino · Bari |
| 49' | ⚽ | Gabriele Moncini · Bari |
| 61' | 🟨 | Simone Trimboli · Mantova |
| 76' | 🟨 | David Wieser · Mantova |
| 84' | 🟨 | Maat Daniel Caprini · Mantova |
| 85' | 🟨 | Francesco Galuppini · Mantova |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ebrima Darboe · Bari |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 24 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bari | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio San Nicola |
| coach days | 86.00 | 86.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1421.74 | 1396.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.74 | -36.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | 1.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| league points | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 90.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 64.80 |
| rest days | 8.14 | 8.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | — |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 2.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.80 |
| state index | -0.48 | -1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |