← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Luca Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Palermo win | 42% | 2.31 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.23 |
| Catanzaro win | 29% | 3.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro +0.25 | 51% | 1.87 |
| Palermo +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.69 |
| Over | 44% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Niccolò Pierozzi · Palermo |
| 15' | 🟨 | Jacopo Petriccione · Catanzaro |
| 39' | 🟨 | Simone Pontisso · Catanzaro |
| 45' | ⚽ | Alphadjo Cissè · Catanzaro |
| 50' | 🟨 | Pietro Iemmello · Catanzaro |
| 74' | 🟨 | Patryk Peda · Palermo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonio Palumbo · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 25 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Catanzaro | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Nicola Ceravolo |
| coach days | 116.00 | 116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1467.44 | 1536.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.47 | 17.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.55 | -0.74 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.43 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.69 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |