⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Carrarese 3–2 Venezia FC

← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Mario Perri, Italy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC win39%2.59
Carrarese win31%3.20
Draw30%3.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Carrarese +0.2554%1.85
Venezia FC +0.2546%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.70
Over44%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Andrea Adorante · Venezia FC
22'🟨Ridgeciano Haps · Venezia FC
25'🟨Julián Illanes · Carrarese
31'🟨Nicolas Schiavi · Carrarese
32'🟨Fabio Abiuso · Carrarese
34'🟨Marco Imperiale · Carrarese
41'⚽Emanuele Zuelli · Carrarese
52'🟨Gianluca Busio · Venezia FC
63'⚽Issa Doumbia · Venezia FC
66'🟨Kike Pérez · Venezia FC
74'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots25
5On target8
6Corners4
14Fouls14
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCarrareseVenezia FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
box share (last 5)0.550.51
cards avg (last 5)2.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio dei Marmi
Andrea Adorante
· Venezia FC
84'⚽Tommaso Rubino · Carrarese
90'🟨Filippo Di Stefano · Carrarese
90'⚽Filippo Di Stefano · Carrarese
coach days663.00116.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.112.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.220.05
dominance (last 5)0.520.64
elo1471.611568.54
elo momentum (last 5)3.0411.88
eye test v10.230.18
eye trend v10.170.29
first sub minute (last 10)54.3055.80
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.25
keeper form v10.730.82
league points11.0013.00
league rank11.007.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2086.40
possession avg (last 5)47.8065.00
rest days7.096.00
scorer concentration0.200.13
season ppg1.381.63
shot diff avg (last 5)1.005.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.8014.40
skill v10.011.76
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.20
state index-0.080.47
sterile dominance v1-0.181.29
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.260.25
threat rate (last 5)0.270.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80