← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Andrea Zanotti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 37% | 2.69 |
| Sudtirol win | 33% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cesena +0 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Sudtirol +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Filipe Bordon · Sudtirol |
| 31' | ⚽ | Cristian Shpendi · Cesena |
| 34' | 🟨 | Massimiliano Mangraviti · Cesena |
| 80' | 🟨 | Federico Davi · Sudtirol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Olivieri · Cesena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sudtirol | Cesena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Marco Druso |
| coach days | 328.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1466.07 | 1482.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.80 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.43 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -3.02 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |