← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Francesco Fourneau, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza win | 62% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.04 |
| Reggiana win | 14% | 8.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza −1 | 50% | 2.05 |
| Reggiana −1 | 50% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Dany Mota · AC Monza |
| 13' | ⚽ | Andrija Novakovich · Reggiana |
| 16' | 🟨 | Mathis Lambourde · Reggiana |
| 21' | 🟨 | Manuel Marras · Reggiana |
| 25' | ⚽ | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 26' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 29' | 🟨 | Keita Baldé · AC Monza |
| 43' | ⚽ | Dany Mota · AC Monza |
| 76' | 🟨 | Andrea Papetti · Reggiana |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | Reggiana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Brianteo |
| coach days | 116.00 | 238.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1497.39 | 1451.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.61 | 14.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.71 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 48.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| league points | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |