← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Perenzoni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 35% | 2.73 |
| Avellino win | 34% | 2.83 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia +0 | 50% | 1.90 |
| Avellino +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over | 39% | 2.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Francesco Cassata · Spezia |
| 44' | 🟥 | Luca Palmiero · Avellino |
| 46' | 🟨 | Michele Besaggio · Avellino |
| 63' | ⚽ | Giuseppe Aurelio · Spezia |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lorenco Šimić · Avellino |
| 82' | ⚽ | Vanja Vlahović · Spezia |
| 85' | ⚽ | Luca Vignali · Spezia |
| 90' | ⚽ | Giuseppe Di Serio · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 23 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Avellino | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi |
| coach days | 85.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1422.59 | 1477.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.54 | -55.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| league points | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.21 | -1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |