← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Simone Galipo, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro win | 42% | 2.28 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.21 |
| Padova win | 28% | 3.53 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Padova −0.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Catanzaro −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.66 |
| Over | 41% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Marco Perrotta · Padova |
| 39' | 🟨 | Tommaso Cassandro · Catanzaro |
| 45' | 🟨 | Simone Pontisso · Catanzaro |
| 48' | 🟨 | Nicolò Brighenti · Catanzaro |
| 57' | 🟨 | Pietro Fusi · Padova |
| 67' | 🟨 | Mattia Fortin · Padova |
| 72' | 🟨 | Cristian Buonaiuto · Padova |
| 74' | 🟨 | Filippo Sgarbi · Padova |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Catanzaro | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Nicola Ceravolo |
| coach days | 110.00 | 505.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1481.03 | 1410.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.37 | 0.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| league points | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 15.19 | 15.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |