← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Andrea Calzavara, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 42% | 2.31 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.07 |
| Cesena win | 27% | 3.64 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cesena −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Spezia −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.57 |
| Over | 38% | 2.51 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Gianluca Lapadula · Spezia |
| 17' | 🟨 | Matteo Francesconi · Cesena |
| 38' | ⚽ | Gianluca Frabotta · Cesena |
| 45' | ⚽ | Gianluca Frabotta · Cesena |
| 48' | 🟨 | Michele Castagnetti · Cesena |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jonathan Klinsmann · Cesena |
| 79' | 🟨 | Massimiliano Mangraviti · Cesena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Salvatore Esposito · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Cesena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |
| coach days | 78.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1498.18 | 1480.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.62 | -1.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 14.09 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.43 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.57 | 26.45 |
| state index | -1.10 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |