← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Valerio Crezzini, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol win | 43% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.07 |
| Empoli win | 26% | 3.73 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Empoli −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.64 |
| Over | 41% | 2.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟥 | Raphael Kofler · Sudtirol |
| 42' | ⚽ | Emanuele Pecorino · Sudtirol |
| 60' | ⚽ | Stiven Shpendi · Empoli |
| 67' | 🟨 | Marius Adamonis · Sudtirol |
| 80' | 🟨 | Joseph Ceesay · Empoli |
| 87' | 🟨 | Gabriele Guarino · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Simone Tronchin · Sudtirol |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marco Nasti · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 21 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sudtirol | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Marco Druso |
| coach days | 308.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1477.22 | 1506.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.81 | -53.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 3.77 | 3.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.87 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.04 | -1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.33 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |