← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 59% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.96 |
| Reggiana win | 17% | 5.59 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cesena −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Reggiana −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.83 |
| Over | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Simone Bonetti · Reggiana |
| 15' | ⚽ | Riccardo Ciervo · Cesena |
| 19' | ⚽ | Elayis Tavsan · Reggiana |
| 24' | ⚽ | Manolo Portanova · Reggiana |
| 46' | 🟨 | Edoardo Motta · Reggiana |
| 50' | 🟨 | Tobías Reinhart · Reggiana |
| 53' | 🟨 | Riccardo Ciervo · Cesena |
| 70' | 🟨 | Tommaso Berti · Cesena |
| 87' | 🟥 | Simone Bastoni · Cesena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cesena | Reggiana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Dino Manuzzi |
| coach days | 64.00 | 217.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1483.58 | 1426.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.57 | 10.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 3.96 | 3.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |