← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Matteo Marcenaro, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 37% | 2.79 |
| Palermo win | 32% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia +0 | 53% | 1.93 |
| Palermo +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over | 41% | 2.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Aleš Matějů · Spezia |
| 33' | 🟨 | Salim Diakité · Palermo |
| 42' | ⚽ | Joel Pohjanpalo · Palermo |
| 58' | ⚽ | Niccolò Pierozzi · Palermo |
| 66' | 🟨 | Alexis Blin · Palermo |
| 73' | 🟨 | Davide Veroli · Palermo |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Samuel Giovane · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |
| coach days | 64.00 | 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1509.15 | 1535.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.03 | 24.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 3.86 | 3.86 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.51 | 28.83 |
| state index | -0.91 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |