← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Perri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza win | 50% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.43 |
| Catanzaro win | 22% | 4.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro −0.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| AC Monza −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.63 |
| Over | 40% | 2.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Alphadjo Cissè · Catanzaro |
| 19' | 🟨 | Kevin Zeroli · AC Monza |
| 34' | 🟨 | Samuele Birindelli · AC Monza |
| 34' | 🟨 | Alphadjo Cissè · Catanzaro |
| 37' | ⚽ | Agustín Álvarez · AC Monza |
| 66' | ⚽ | Samuele Birindelli · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Brianteo |
| coach days | 95.00 | 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1476.25 | 1489.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.67 | -1.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.87 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.78 |
| league points | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 2.77 | 2.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | 1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.35 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |