← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bari win | 38% | 2.58 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.05 |
| Padova win | 31% | 3.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bari +0 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Padova +0 | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.61 |
| Over | 40% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Emanuele Rao · Bari |
| 50' | ⚽ | Mattia Bortolussi · Padova |
| 56' | 🟨 | Gaetano Castrovilli · Bari |
| 69' | 🟥 | Alessandro Capelli · Padova |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Gabriele Moncini · Bari |
| 84' | ⚽ | Leonardo Cerri · Bari |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bari | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio San Nicola |
| coach days | 64.00 | 490.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1425.86 | 1418.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.69 | 12.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 3.77 | 3.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.99 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |