← Serie B 2025-26 · Wed, Oct 1, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Giuseppe Mucera, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza win | 39% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.10 |
| Empoli win | 29% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Empoli +0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| AC Monza +0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.57 |
| Over | 38% | 2.68 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Leonardo Colombo · AC Monza |
| 49' | ⚽ | Andrea Carboni · AC Monza |
| 57' | 🟨 | Luca Belardinelli · Empoli |
| 62' | 🟨 | Salvatore Elia · Empoli |
| 66' | 🟨 | Pedro Obiang · AC Monza |
| 79' | ⚽ | Gabriele Guarino · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | AC Monza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 61.00 | 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1509.47 | 1473.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.82 | -10.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.78 |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 3.04 | 4.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.57 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |