← Serie B 2025-26 · Tue, Sep 30, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Paride Tremolada, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Virtus Entella win | 43% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.12 |
| Bari win | 26% | 3.80 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Virtus Entella −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Bari −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.53 |
| Over | 37% | 2.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Matthias Verreth · Bari |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ahmad Benali · Virtus Entella |
| 48' | ⚽ | Tommaso Fumagalli · Virtus Entella |
| 51' | 🟨 | Andrea Tiritiello · Virtus Entella |
| 55' | ⚽ | Andrea Tiritiello · Virtus Entella |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ivan Marconi · Virtus Entella |
| 70' | 🟨 | Gaetano Castrovilli · Bari |
| 71' | 🟨 | Stefano Di Mario · Virtus Entella |
| 76' | 🟨 | Andrea Franzoni · Virtus Entella |
| 82' | 🟨 | Davide Bariti · Virtus Entella |
| 87' | ⚽ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 22 | Fouls | 11 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Virtus Entella | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale |
| Christian Gytkjær · Bari |
| coach days | 91.00 | 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1291.88 | 1428.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.89 | -32.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 3.23 | 3.04 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.73 | -1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |