← Serie B 2025-26 · Tue, Sep 30, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Andrea Zanotti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 50% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
| Reggiana win | 22% | 4.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia +0.5 | 51% | 2.03 |
| Reggiana +0.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.78 |
| Over | 45% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Andrea Cistana · Spezia |
| 26' | ⚽ | Gianluca Lapadula · Spezia |
| 52' | 🟥 | Petko Hristov · Spezia |
| 61' | ⚽ | Natan Girma · Reggiana |
| 74' | 🟨 | Manolo Portanova · Reggiana |
| 78' | 🟨 | Tobías Reinhart · Reggiana |
| 84' | 🟨 | Elayis Tavsan · Reggiana |
| 87' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Libutti · Reggiana |
| 90' | 🟨 | Natan Girma · Reggiana |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reggiana | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
| coach days | 213.00 | 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1425.62 | 1501.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.68 | -54.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| league points | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 3.23 | 3.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |