← Serie B 2025-26 · Tue, Sep 30, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Livio Marinelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Palermo win | 45% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
| Venezia FC win | 26% | 3.83 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Palermo −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Venezia FC −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.81 |
| Over | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Niccolò Pierozzi · Palermo |
| 31' | 🟨 | Tommaso Augello · Palermo |
| 33' | 🟨 | Issa Doumbia · Venezia FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Palermo |
| 49' | 🟨 | Pietro Ceccaroni · Palermo |
| 86' | 🟨 | Gianluca Busio · Venezia FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pietro Ceccaroni · Palermo |
| 90' | 🟥 | Pietro Ceccaroni · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 3 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Palermo | Venezia FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Renzo Barbera |
| coach days | 91.00 | 91.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1529.75 | 1554.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.78 | -2.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.80 |
| league points | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 3.23 | 3.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | — |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | 1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |