← Serie B 2025-26 · Tue, Sep 30, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Rapuano, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Padova win | 42% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
| Avellino win | 26% | 3.80 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Padova −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Avellino −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.53 |
| Over | 38% | 2.67 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Filippo Sgarbi · Padova |
| 29' | ⚽ | Cristian Buonaiuto · Padova |
| 31' | ⚽ | Tommaso Biasci · Avellino |
| 44' | ⚽ | Facundo Lescano · Avellino |
| 54' | 🟨 | Giulio Favale · Padova |
| 85' | 🟨 | Luca Di Maggio · Padova |
| 89' | 🟨 | Raffaele Russo · Avellino |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Padova | Avellino |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Euganeo |
| coach days | 486.00 | 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.30 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1412.77 | 1445.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.72 | 25.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 3.14 | 3.23 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.86 | 26.95 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |