← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 28, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Davide Di Marco, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 42% | 2.32 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.15 |
| Carrarese win | 28% | 3.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carrarese −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Empoli −0.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.66 |
| Over | 42% | 2.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Emanuele Zuelli · Carrarese |
| 15' | ⚽ | Simone Zanon · Carrarese |
| 33' | 🟨 | Andrea Ghion · Empoli |
| 40' | 🟨 | Franco Carboni · Empoli |
| 43' | ⚽ | Stiven Shpendi · Empoli |
| 48' | 🟨 | Kleis Bozhanaj · Carrarese |
| 56' | 🟨 | Nikola Sekulov · Carrarese |
| 78' | ⚽ | Joseph Ceesay · Empoli |
| 88' | ⚽ | Mattia Finotto · Carrarese |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 58.00 | 636.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1512.73 | 1455.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -52.47 | 11.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 45.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.81 |
| league points | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 7.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.80 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |