← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 28, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 61% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.26 |
| Pescara win | 16% | 6.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pescara −1 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Modena −1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Filippo Pellacani · Pescara |
| 7' | 🟨 | Daniel Tonoli · Modena |
| 9' | 🟨 | Cristian Cauz · Modena |
| 12' | 🟨 | Francesco Di Mariano · Modena |
| 40' | ⚽ | Giacomo Olzer · Pescara |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Ettore Gliozzi · Modena |
| 56' | 🟨 | Riccardo Brosco · Pescara |
| 58' | ⚽ | Alessandro Sersanti · Modena |
| 64' | 🟨 | Luca Valzania · Pescara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| coach days | 89.00 | 58.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1486.55 | 1339.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.94 | 3.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.60 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.91 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |