← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Matteo Marchetti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bari win | 37% | 2.56 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.81 |
| Sampdoria win | 29% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria −0.25 | 55% | 1.80 |
| Bari −0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.51 |
| Over | 36% | 2.67 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Marvin Çuni · Sampdoria |
| 7' | 🟨 | Liam Henderson · Sampdoria |
| 19' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Sampdoria |
| 28' | ⚽ | Fabio Depaoli · Sampdoria |
| 32' | ⚽ | Gabriele Moncini · Bari |
| 51' | 🟨 | Leonardo Benedetti · Sampdoria |
| 53' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Dickmann · Bari |
| 87' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Sibilli · Bari |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bari | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio San Nicola |
| coach days | 57.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1437.49 | 1422.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.65 | -34.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.94 | 7.09 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.38 | 27.14 |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |