← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia FC win | 44% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.21 |
| Spezia win | 26% | 4.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia FC −0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Spezia −0.25 | 48% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.64 |
| Over | 41% | 2.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟥 | Luca Vignali · Spezia |
| 9' | 🟨 | Kike Pérez · Venezia FC |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrea Adorante · Venezia FC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Seid Korać · Venezia FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Petko Hristov · Spezia |
| 89' | 🟨 | Francesco Cassata · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Venezia FC | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Pierluigi Penzo |
| coach days | 88.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1572.22 | 1519.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.10 | -54.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.65 |
| league points | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.22 | 25.94 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |