← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Matteo Marcenaro, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol win | 48% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 |
| Reggiana win | 23% | 4.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reggiana −0.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Sudtirol −0.5 | 48% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Jacopo Martini · Sudtirol |
| 26' | ⚽ | Silvio Merkaj · Sudtirol |
| 55' | ⚽ | Simone Tronchin · Sudtirol |
| 59' | ⚽ | Manolo Portanova · Reggiana |
| 82' | 🟨 | Mamadou Coulibaly · Sudtirol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 29 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sudtirol | Reggiana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stadio Marco Druso |
| coach days | 300.00 | 210.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1468.50 | 1436.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.58 | 6.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| league points | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.83 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.91 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.96 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |