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Sudtirol 3–1 Reggiana

← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Matteo Marcenaro, Italy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sudtirol win48%2.12
Draw29%3.40
Reggiana win23%4.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggiana −0.552%1.93
Sudtirol −0.548%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.67
Over42%2.38

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Jacopo Martini · Sudtirol
26'⚽Silvio Merkaj · Sudtirol
55'⚽Simone Tronchin · Sudtirol
59'⚽Manolo Portanova · Reggiana
82'🟨Mamadou Coulibaly · Sudtirol

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
29Shots12
9On target2
10Corners4
14Fouls10
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSudtirolReggiana
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.730.54
cards avg (last 5)1.600.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Marco Druso
coach days300.00210.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.452.54
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.13
dominance (last 5)0.460.44
elo1468.501436.75
elo momentum (last 5)-2.586.52
eye test v1-0.38-0.14
eye trend v1-0.27-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)56.0053.10
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.680.75
league points5.005.00
league rank13.009.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.4077.80
possession avg (last 5)38.8045.00
rest days7.837.00
scorer concentration0.200.20
season ppg1.251.25
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.20-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.6011.00
skill v1-1.91-0.29
sot against avg (last 5)4.606.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.20
state index-0.12-0.28
sterile dominance v1-1.96-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.320.25
threat rate (last 3)0.340.24
threat rate (last 5)0.360.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40