← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Bonacina, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Frosinone Calcio win | 39% | 2.58 |
| Mantova win | 31% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mantova +0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Frosinone Calcio +0.25 | 46% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.78 |
| Over | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Ilias Koutsoupias · Frosinone Calcio |
| 16' | ⚽ | Farès Ghedjemis · Frosinone Calcio |
| 20' | 🟨 | Gabriele Bracaglia · Frosinone Calcio |
| 22' | ⚽ | Filippo Grosso · Frosinone Calcio |
| 43' | ⚽ | Giacomo Calò · Frosinone Calcio |
| 48' | 🟨 | Massimo Zilli · Frosinone Calcio |
| 54' | ⚽ | Antonio Fiori · Mantova |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jérémy Oyono · Frosinone Calcio |
| 62' | 🟨 | Antonio Fiori · Mantova |
| 86' | ⚽ | Edoardo Vergani · Frosinone Calcio |
| 87' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 28 | Shots | 22 |
| 9 | On target | 9 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mantova | Frosinone Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Danilo Martelli |
| Flavio Paoletti · Mantova |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ilario Monterisi · Frosinone Calcio |
| coach days | 57.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1417.43 | 1496.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.85 | 34.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 45.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.86 |
| league points | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.81 | 7.83 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.77 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.23 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |