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Pescara 4–0 Empoli

← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 21, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Empoli win39%2.45
Pescara win31%3.26
Draw29%3.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pescara +0.2553%1.88
Empoli +0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.72
Over43%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Marco Curto · Empoli
60'🟨Riccardo Capellini · Pescara
65'🟨Gabriele Guarino · Empoli
68'⚽Andrea Oliveri · Pescara
71'⚽Andrea Oliveri · Pescara
80'⚽Lorenzo Meazzi · Pescara
90'⚽Davide Merola · Pescara

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
18Shots8
10On target4
6Corners5
14Fouls20
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPescaraEmpoli
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.510.54
cards avg (last 5)0.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia
coach days51.0051.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.20
corner diff avg (last 5)1.001.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.783.39
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.17
dominance (last 5)0.450.49
elo1311.871539.90
elo momentum (last 5)-32.97-9.75
eye test v1-0.52-0.28
eye trend v1-0.300.01
first sub minute (last 10)50.9051.80
form points (last 5)1.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.680.65
league points1.004.00
league rank17.0013.00
matches since blank3.006.00
matches since clean sheet5.0010.00
matches since win5.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.2078.00
possession avg (last 5)49.2048.60
rest days8.096.91
scorer concentration—0.80
season ppg0.331.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.40-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.0010.60
skill v10.47-0.05
sot against avg (last 5)6.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.00
state index-1.20-0.14
sterile dominance v10.170.21
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.260.19
threat rate (last 5)0.250.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80