β Serie B 2025-26 Β· Sun, Sep 21, 01:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Giuseppe Mucera, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carrarese win | 41% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.96 |
| Avellino win | 27% | 3.59 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Avellino β0.25 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Carrarese β0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.59 |
| Over | 40% | 2.46 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | π¨ | Lorenco Ε imiΔ Β· Avellino |
| 16' | β½ | Fabio Abiuso Β· Carrarese |
| 18' | β½ | Valerio Crespi Β· Avellino |
| 22' | π¨ | Patrick Enrici Β· Avellino |
| 25' | β½ (pen) | Manuel Cicconi Β· Carrarese |
| 30' | π¨ | Patrick Enrici Β· Avellino |
| 30' | π₯ | Patrick Enrici Β· Avellino |
| 37' | β½ (og) | Fabio Ruggeri Β· Avellino |
| 44' | π¨ | Kleis Bozhanaj Β· Carrarese |
| 44' | π¨ | Tommaso Biasci Β· Avellino |
| 56' | β½ |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carrarese | Avellino |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | β |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio dei Marmi |
| 67' | β½ | Michele Besaggio Β· Avellino |
| 78' | π¨ | Alessandro Fontanarosa Β· Avellino |
| 81' | β½ | Nicolas Schiavi Β· Carrarese |
| coach days | 629.00 | 51.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | β |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | β |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | β |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | β |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | β |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | β |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | β |
| elo | 1468.57 | 1414.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.67 | 26.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.40 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | β |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | β |
| keeper form v1 | β | 0.70 |
| league points | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 79.33 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.91 | 8.77 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | β |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | β |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |