← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Luca Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 45% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
| Mantova win | 26% | 3.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena +0.25 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Mantova +0.25 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.78 |
| Over | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Ettore Gliozzi · Modena |
| 9' | 🟨 | Zan Majer · Mantova |
| 14' | 🟨 | Francesco Di Mariano · Modena |
| 24' | 🟨 | Nicolò Radaelli · Mantova |
| 29' | 🟨 | Bryant Nieling · Modena |
| 38' | ⚽ | Daniel Tonoli · Modena |
| 44' | 🟨 | Fabio Gerli · Modena |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Leonardo Mancuso · Mantova |
| 58' | 🟨 | Alessio Castellini · Mantova |
| 68' | ⚽ (og) | Zan Majer · Modena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 22 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mantova | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Danilo Martelli |
| coach days | 50.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1433.42 | 1470.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.20 | 15.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| league points | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 6.19 | 7.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.74 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |