← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza win | 50% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 |
| Sampdoria win | 20% | 5.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza −0.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Sampdoria −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over | 39% | 2.51 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 7' | 🟨 | Stipe Vulikić · Sampdoria |
| 31' | 🟥 | Luigi Cherubini · Sampdoria |
| 54' | 🟨 | Liam Henderson · Sampdoria |
| 55' | 🟥 | Patrick Ciurria · AC Monza |
| 59' | ⚽ | Agustín Álvarez · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Brianteo |
| coach days | 81.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1522.26 | 1428.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.79 | -26.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| league points | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.86 | 6.91 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.72 | 27.57 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |