← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 14, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Federico La Penna, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Palermo win | 44% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.19 |
| Sudtirol win | 26% | 3.74 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Palermo +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Sudtirol +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.74 |
| Over | 44% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Joel Pohjanpalo · Palermo |
| 21' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Palermo |
| 47' | 🟨 | Patryk Peda · Palermo |
| 68' | 🟨 | Tommaso Augello · Palermo |
| 75' | 🟨 | Alessandro Mallamo · Sudtirol |
| 80' | ⚽ | Joel Pohjanpalo · Palermo |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jacopo Martini · Sudtirol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sudtirol | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Marco Druso |
| coach days | 287.00 | 75.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1482.58 | 1503.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.99 | 2.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 13.93 | 14.84 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.09 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| state index | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.91 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |