← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 36% | 2.71 |
| Cesena win | 33% | 3.01 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Cesena +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.54 |
| Over | 38% | 2.59 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Stipe Vulikić · Sampdoria |
| 24' | 🟨 | Alessandro Pio Riccio · Sampdoria |
| 37' | ⚽ | Michele Castagnetti · Cesena |
| 53' | ⚽ | Giovanni Zaro · Cesena |
| 57' | 🟨 | Liam Henderson · Sampdoria |
| 71' | 🟨 | Cristian Shpendi · Cesena |
| 82' | 🟨 | Tommaso Berti · Cesena |
| 86' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Sampdoria |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nicholas Ioannou · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Cesena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 43.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1439.14 | 1481.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.86 | 17.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.70 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | — |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 13.02 | 13.94 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.84 | 26.42 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |