← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro win | 38% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.86 |
| Carrarese win | 29% | 3.59 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carrarese −0.25 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Catanzaro −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.53 |
| Over | 38% | 2.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Pietro Iemmello · Catanzaro |
| 13' | 🟨 | Kleis Bozhanaj · Carrarese |
| 46' | ⚽ | Matias Antonini · Catanzaro |
| 50' | 🟨 | Patrick Amiamo Nuamah · Catanzaro |
| 50' | 🟨 | Luis Hasa · Carrarese |
| 53' | 🟨 | Gianluca Di Chiara · Catanzaro |
| 64' | ⚽ | Julián Illanes · Carrarese |
| 79' | 🟨 | Fabio Rispoli · Catanzaro |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gabriele Parlanti · Carrarese |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Catanzaro | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Nicola Ceravolo |
| coach days | 74.00 | 621.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1494.40 | 1466.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.46 | 22.03 |
| eye test v1 | -1.24 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.83 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 13.84 | 12.93 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.48 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.54 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.10 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |