← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 31, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Massimi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 48% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
| Avellino win | 23% | 4.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Avellino −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Modena −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.66 |
| Over | 42% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Andrea Cagnano · Avellino |
| 42' | 🟨 | Grégoire Defrel · Modena |
| 54' | ⚽ | Dimitrios Sounas · Avellino |
| 63' | ⚽ | Grégoire Defrel · Modena |
| 70' | 🟨 | Francesco Patierno · Avellino |
| 74' | 🟨 | Andrea Cagnano · Avellino |
| 74' | 🟥 | Andrea Cagnano · Avellino |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Magnino · Modena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Claudio Manzi · Avellino |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Sounas · Avellino |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Avellino |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.40 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| coach days | 61.00 | 30.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | — |
| elo | 1459.48 | 1399.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.45 | 1.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | — |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | — |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 6.02 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | — |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |