← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 31, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Simone Galipo, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza win | 37% | 2.66 |
| Bari win | 32% | 3.13 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza +0 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Bari +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.61 |
| Over | 40% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Dany Mota · AC Monza |
| 4' | 🟨 | Luca Ravanelli · AC Monza |
| 16' | ⚽ | Gabriele Moncini · Bari |
| 19' | 🟨 | Pedro Obiang · AC Monza |
| 27' | 🟨 | Gianluca Caprari · AC Monza |
| 33' | 🟨 | Anthony Partipilo · Bari |
| 82' | 🟨 | Sheriff Kassama · Bari |
| 88' | 🟨 | Filippo Delli Carri · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bari | AC Monza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio San Nicola |
| coach days | 30.00 | 61.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1461.01 | 1534.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.67 | -2.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.08 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.94 | 29.67 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |