← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 31, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol win | 40% | 2.48 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
| Sampdoria win | 29% | 3.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Sudtirol −0.25 | 48% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.65 |
| Over | 40% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Daniele Casiraghi · Sudtirol |
| 19' | ⚽ | Silvio Merkaj · Sudtirol |
| 29' | 🟨 | Marius Adamonis · Sudtirol |
| 31' | ⚽ | Hamza El Kaouakibi · Sudtirol |
| 62' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Sampdoria |
| 85' | 🟨 | Estanis Pedrola · Sampdoria |
| 90' | ⚽ | Massimo Coda · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sudtirol | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Marco Druso |
| coach days | 273.00 | 30.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 1.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1476.12 | 1450.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.14 | 6.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | — |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 6.92 | 5.94 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.72 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.96 | 27.54 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.79 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |