← Serie B 2025-26 · Fri, Aug 29, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: J. L. Sacchi
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Empoli win | 38% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
| Reggiana win | 30% | 3.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Reggiana +0.25 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Empoli +0.25 | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.52 |
| Over | 37% | 2.59 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |