← Serie B 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 24, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 54% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.54 |
| Carrarese win | 19% | 5.47 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carrarese −0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Spezia −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.66 |
| Over | 42% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Petko Hristov · Spezia |
| 31' | 🟨 | Julián Illanes · Carrarese |
| 44' | 🟥 | Rachid Kouda · Spezia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Salvatore Esposito · Spezia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Fabio Ruggeri · Carrarese |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolas Schiavi · Carrarese |
| 68' | 🟨 | Aleš Matějů · Spezia |
| 71' | ⚽ | Nicolas Schiavi · Carrarese |
| 82' | 🟨 | Christian Comotto · Spezia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Di Serio · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |
| coach days | 23.00 | 601.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1563.01 | 1452.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.56 | 6.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.54 | 27.04 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |