← Serie B 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Colombo
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza win | 55% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.90 |
| Mantova win | 20% | 5.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mantova −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| AC Monza −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.92 |
| Over | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Patrick Ciurria · AC Monza |
| 32' | 🟨 | Samuele Birindelli · AC Monza |
| 47' | 🟨 | Nicolò Radaelli · Mantova |
| 56' | ⚽ | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 70' | 🟨 | Davis Mensah · Mantova |
| 81' | 🟨 | Simone Trimboli · Mantova |
| 90' | 🟨 | Keita Baldé · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 21 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Brianteo |
| coach days | 53.00 | 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1528.47 | 1436.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.22 | 5.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 89.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | 1.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.27 | 28.06 |
| state index | -0.65 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.14 | 1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |