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US Sassuolo Calcio 0–1 Frosinone Calcio

← Serie B 2024-25 · Tue, May 13, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: I. Pezzuto

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio win44%2.15
Draw28%3.40
US Sassuolo Calcio win27%3.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio +0.2552%1.85
US Sassuolo Calcio +0.2548%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.84
Under48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Ben Lhassine Kone · Frosinone Calcio
13'🟨Edoardo Iannoni · US Sassuolo Calcio
35'🟨Jérémy Oyono · Frosinone Calcio
38'⚽ (pen)Emil Bohinen · Frosinone Calcio
81'🟨Ilario Monterisi · Frosinone Calcio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots15
5On target5
7Corners4
12Fouls12
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricUS Sassuolo CalcioFrosinone Calcio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.21
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.09
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.490.17
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.20
box share (last 5)0.560.56
cards avg (last 5)1.200.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
coach days
346.00
101.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.400.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.551.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.12
dominance (last 5)0.480.50
elo1630.341461.88
elo momentum (last 5)2.46-20.06
eye test v10.89-0.90
eye trend v1-0.11-0.29
first sub minute (last 10)50.1046.00
form points (last 5)10.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.410.97
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.25
keeper form v10.790.70
league points82.0040.00
league rank1.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.006.00
matches since win2.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)88.0083.20
possession avg (last 5)51.6048.80
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.230.16
season ppg2.221.08
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.4012.40
skill v11.060.45
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.503.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.671.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.002.00
squad age25.91—
state index0.39-0.63
sterile dominance v10.640.15
threat rate (last 10)0.260.30
threat rate (last 3)0.220.27
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40