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Palermo 1–1 Carrarese

← Serie B 2024-25 · Tue, May 13, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Perri

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Palermo win65%1.45
Draw20%4.76
Carrarese win15%6.41

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Carrarese −1.2551%1.88
Palermo −1.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.54
Under38%2.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Dimitris Nikolaou · Palermo
16'⚽Stiven Shpendi · Carrarese
21'🟨Gabriele Guarino · Carrarese
53'🟨Francesco Di Mariano · Palermo
57'🟨Gabriele Guarino · Carrarese
57'🟥Gabriele Guarino · Carrarese
68'🟨Salim Diakité · Palermo
86'🟨Jérémy Le Douaron · Palermo
86'🟨Julián Illanes · Carrarese
86'⚽Jérémy Le Douaron · Palermo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
26Shots10
10On target3
10Corners3
11Fouls14
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPalermoCarrarese
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
box share (last 5)0.690.67
cards avg (last 5)1.802.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Renzo Barbera
coach days
346.00
498.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.000.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.883.48
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.10
dominance (last 5)0.450.42
elo1512.171444.24
elo momentum (last 5)-3.903.58
eye test v10.22-0.70
eye trend v1-0.150.13
first sub minute (last 10)68.0049.20
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.290.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.35
keeper form v10.670.66
league points51.0044.00
league rank7.0012.00
matches since blank20.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6077.60
possession avg (last 5)52.2042.80
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.160.17
season ppg1.381.19
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.60-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.2010.60
skill v10.52-0.45
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.602.80
state index-0.04-0.46
sterile dominance v10.45-0.33
threat rate (last 10)0.280.22
threat rate (last 3)0.260.24
threat rate (last 5)0.230.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60