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Spezia 2–3 Cremonese

← Serie B 2024-25 · Fri, May 9, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Rutella

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Spezia win37%2.60
Cremonese win32%3.08
Draw31%3.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Spezia +054%1.78
Cremonese +046%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.89
Over49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Tommaso Barbieri · Cremonese
17'⚽Paulo Azzi · Cremonese
26'🟨Matteo Bianchetti · Cremonese
31'🟨Aleš Matějů · Spezia
31'🟨Tommaso Barbieri · Cremonese
33'🟨Dennis Johnsen · Cremonese
43'⚽Jari Vandeputte · Cremonese
50'🟨Charles Pickel · Cremonese
56'🟨Luca Vignali · Spezia
59'🟨Matteo Bianchetti · Cremonese
59'🟥Matteo Bianchetti · Cremonese
69'⚽Francesco Pio Esposito · Spezia
75'⚽ (pen)Gianluca Lapadula · Spezia
88'🟨Marco Nasti · Cremonese
90'🟨Mattia Valoti · Cremonese

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
17Shots9
4On target5
6Corners4
14Fouls22
2Yellow cards7
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSpeziaCremonese
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.640.59
cards avg (last 5)1.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Alberto Picco
coach days
555.00
189.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.403.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.602.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.20
corners volatility (last 10)4.221.89
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.17
dominance (last 5)0.570.66
elo1547.301563.06
elo momentum (last 5)1.4410.45
eye test v10.180.71
eye trend v10.02-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)59.0052.50
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.33
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.740.58
league points63.0058.00
league rank3.004.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8085.20
possession avg (last 5)54.8059.20
rest days5.235.04
scorer concentration0.310.14
season ppg1.751.61
shot diff avg (last 5)2.006.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.0014.60
skill v10.521.29
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.406.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.60
state index0.250.36
sterile dominance v10.210.72
threat rate (last 10)0.300.28
threat rate (last 3)0.270.26
threat rate (last 5)0.270.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.80