← Serie B 2024-25 · Fri, May 9, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Santoro
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 42% | 2.29 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
| Brescia win | 27% | 3.56 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Brescia −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.66 |
| Over | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Davide Adorni · Brescia |
| 25' | ⚽ (og) | Cristian Cauz · Brescia |
| 28' | ⚽ | Giuseppe Caso · Modena |
| 67' | 🟨 | Alessandro Di Pardo · Modena |
| 67' | ⚽ | Alessandro Di Pardo · Modena |
| 77' | 🟨 | Antonio Palumbo · Modena |
| 85' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Caso · Modena |
| 88' | 🟨 | Gady Beyuku · Modena |
| 89' | ⚽ | Gabriele Calvani · Brescia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Brescia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| coach days |
| 189.00 |
| 128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1455.07 | 1427.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.21 | -8.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| league points | 44.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 5.23 | 5.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |