← Serie B 2024-25 · Fri, May 9, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Monaldi
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mantova win | 46% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.27 |
| Carrarese win | 24% | 4.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carrarese −0.5 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Mantova −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.87 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Nicola Ravaglia · Carrarese |
| 33' | 🟨 | Julián Illanes · Carrarese |
| 44' | ⚽ | Leonardo Mancuso · Mantova |
| 47' | ⚽ | Mattia Finotto · Carrarese |
| 55' | 🟨 | Manuel Cicconi · Carrarese |
| 63' | 🟨 | Stefano Cella · Mantova |
| 76' | 🟨 | Leonardo Capezzi · Carrarese |
| 83' | ⚽ | Alessandro Debenedetti · Mantova |
| 84' | 🟨 | Alessandro Debenedetti · Mantova |
| 90' | 🟨 | Davide Bragantini · Mantova |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mantova | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Danilo Martelli |
| coach days |
| 678.00 |
| 494.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 3.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1439.62 | 1452.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.27 | 12.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.86 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 40.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 5.23 | 5.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.96 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |