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Cremonese 1–1 US Sassuolo Calcio

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Galipò

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cremonese win43%2.22
Draw29%3.30
US Sassuolo Calcio win28%3.37

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cremonese −0.2550%1.91
US Sassuolo Calcio −0.2550%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.63
Under42%2.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'⚽Armand Laurienté · US Sassuolo Calcio
38'⚽Tommaso Barbieri · Cremonese
57'🟨Federico Ceccherini · Cremonese
75'🟨Armand Laurienté · US Sassuolo Calcio
90'🟨Charles Pickel · Cremonese
90'🟨Valentin Antov · Cremonese

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
19Shots4
7On target2
5Corners2
16Fouls18
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCremoneseUS Sassuolo Calcio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.51
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.570.59
cards avg (last 5)2.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Giovanni Zini
coach days
184.00
337.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.21
corner diff avg (last 5)4.00-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.006.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.003.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.892.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.250.11
dominance (last 5)0.660.55
elo1562.121654.91
elo momentum (last 5)3.7314.05
eye test v10.711.32
eye trend v1-0.360.34
first sub minute (last 10)50.9055.10
form points (last 5)9.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.803.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.331.37
h2 goals (last 10)1.501.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.55
keeper form v10.590.76
league points57.0081.00
league rank4.001.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.2088.80
possession avg (last 5)62.4051.00
rest days3.193.00
scorer concentration0.150.22
season ppg1.632.31
shot diff avg (last 5)6.402.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.0014.80
skill v11.501.10
sot against avg (last 5)2.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.705.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.677.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.606.80
squad age—25.91
state index0.290.83
sterile dominance v10.950.18
threat rate (last 10)0.290.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.26
threat rate (last 5)0.250.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.00