← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Perri
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carrarese win | 39% | 2.44 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.92 |
| Modena win | 28% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Carrarese −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.63 |
| Over | 42% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟥 | Vincenzo Fiorillo · Carrarese |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolas Schiavi · Carrarese |
| 52' | 🟨 | Matteo Cotali · Modena |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Ettore Gliozzi · Modena |
| 64' | 🟨 | Simone Santoro · Modena |
| 80' | 🟨 | Manuel Cicconi · Carrarese |
| 81' | 🟨 | Issiaka Kamate · Modena |
| 88' | ⚽ | Julián Illanes · Carrarese |
| 90' | 🟨 | Julián Illanes · Carrarese |
| 90' | 🟥 | Marco Oliva · Modena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carrarese | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio dei Marmi |
| coach days |
| 489.00 |
| 184.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1444.05 | 1463.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.66 | 12.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 41.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 2.81 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |