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Bari 1–0 Pisa

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Marcenaro

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa win36%2.63
Draw35%2.76
Bari win29%3.31

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bari +0.2556%1.74
Pisa +0.2544%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.55
Over39%2.46

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Nicholas Bonfanti · Bari
43'🟨Mattia Maita · Bari
56'🟨Boris Radunović · Bari
59'🟨Ahmad Benali · Bari
67'🟨Costantino Favasuli · Bari
73'🟨Idrissa Touré · Pisa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots15
2On target4
5Corners5
14Fouls11
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBariPisa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.710.75
cards avg (last 5)2.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale San Nicola
coach days
337.00
307.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.17
corner diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.313.09
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.07
dominance (last 5)0.540.65
elo1463.421580.70
elo momentum (last 5)-21.0221.73
eye test v10.40-0.19
eye trend v10.13-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)56.0053.00
form points (last 5)4.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
keeper form v10.710.62
league points44.0070.00
league rank8.002.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8078.60
possession avg (last 5)53.0051.20
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.210.24
season ppg1.262.00
shot diff avg (last 5)2.205.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.0012.20
skill v10.770.18
sot against avg (last 5)5.001.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.80
state index-0.400.76
sterile dominance v10.280.20
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.24
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.80