← Serie B 2024-25 · Thu, May 1, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: I. Pezzuto
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brescia win | 37% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
| Cittadella win | 30% | 3.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brescia +0 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Cittadella +0 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.50 |
| Over | 36% | 2.68 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Simone Tronchin · Cittadella |
| 32' | ⚽ | Gennaro Borrelli · Brescia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Carissoni · Cittadella |
| 63' | 🟨 | Federico Casolari · Cittadella |
| 68' | 🟨 | Gabriele Moncini · Brescia |
| 80' | 🟨 | Elio Capradossi · Cittadella |
| 86' | 🟨 | Birkir Bjarnason · Brescia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Simone Rabbi · Cittadella |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 24 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cittadella | Brescia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato |
| coach days |
| 212.00 |
| 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1379.33 | 1417.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.61 | -11.38 |
| eye test v1 | -1.43 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| league points | 36.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 6.09 | 6.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.12 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.99 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |