← Serie B 2024-25 · Thu, May 1, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Cosso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 47% | 47% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.27 | fair |
| Reggiana win | 23% | 23% | 4.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reggiana −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Modena −0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.64 |
| Over | 41% | 2.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Manolo Portanova · Reggiana |
| 30' | ⚽ (og) | Paolo Rozzio · Modena |
| 43' | ⚽ (og) | Francesco Bardi · Modena |
| 50' | 🟨 | Manuel Marras · Reggiana |
| 62' | 🟨 | Elvis Kabashi · Reggiana |
| 66' | 🟨 | Antonio Palumbo · Modena |
| 70' | ⚽ | Natan Girma · Reggiana |
| 79' | 🟨 | Natan Girma · Reggiana |
| 84' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Lucchesi · Reggiana |
| 86' | ⚽ | Cedric Gondo · Reggiana |
| 87' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Reggiana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| 🟨 |
| Cedric Gondo · Reggiana |
| 89' | 🟨 | Gady Beyuku · Modena |
| 90' | 🟥 | Pedro Mendes · Modena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 181.00 | 61.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1480.17 | 1396.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.50 | -14.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 44.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 26.35 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |