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Modena 2–3 Reggiana

← Serie B 2024-25 · Thu, May 1, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Cosso

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Modena win47%2.06
Draw30%3.27
Reggiana win23%4.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggiana −0.553%1.85
Modena −0.547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.64
Over41%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Manolo Portanova · Reggiana
30'⚽ (og)Paolo Rozzio · Modena
43'⚽ (og)Francesco Bardi · Modena
50'🟨Manuel Marras · Reggiana
62'🟨Elvis Kabashi · Reggiana
66'🟨Antonio Palumbo · Modena
70'⚽Natan Girma · Reggiana
79'🟨Natan Girma · Reggiana
84'🟨Lorenzo Lucchesi · Reggiana
86'⚽Cedric Gondo · Reggiana
87'🟨Cedric Gondo · Reggiana
89'🟨Gady Beyuku · Modena
90'🟥Pedro Mendes · Modena

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
8Shots14
1On target5
1Corners8
8Fouls17
2Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricModenaReggiana
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.17
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.680.66
cards avg (last 5)2.603.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Alberto Braglia
coach days
181.00
61.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.202.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.841.34
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.17
dominance (last 5)0.450.42
elo1477.931390.24
elo momentum (last 5)17.59-15.50
eye test v10.18-0.81
eye trend v10.580.04
first sub minute (last 10)53.2057.40
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
keeper form v10.67—
league points44.0035.00
league rank9.0019.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet7.0013.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6076.20
possession avg (last 5)47.2044.40
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.130.19
season ppg1.291.03
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.2010.60
skill v10.02-0.47
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.702.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.331.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.602.60
state index0.01-0.83
sterile dominance v1-0.07-0.32
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.260.24
threat rate (last 5)0.250.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40